De Waardeloze Prognoses van de EU
Bloomberg laat zien dat de EU in een conceptakkoord met Griekenland rekening houdt met een krimp van het Griekse bbp van 5 procent in 2012. In eerste instantie was nog een krimp van 2 procent geprognosticeerd. Desalniettemin blijft de EU optimistisch: in 2013 gaat Griekenland weer groeien.
De EU zit er met haar prognoses over de Griekse economie echter consequent naast. Klaarblijkelijk geen reden om het optimisme ietwat te temperen. Een kleine selectie van wanvoorspellingen door de jaren heen.
Greece: Solid growth driven by domestic demand (2007)
‘Economic growth accelerated to above 4% on an annual basis in the first half of the year […] GDP is projected to grow at around 3,6% over the forecast horizon [in 2008 en 2009 red.]’
Greece: Wider external imbalances in a context of decelerating growth (2008)
‘Economic growth decelerated to just above 3,5% in the first half of 2008. […] In spite of this, economic activity is estimated to continue to grow at well above the euro area average at around 3% in 2008, on the back of resilient private consumption.’
Greece: Economic downturn challenges public finances (2009)
‘Having experienced a decade of strong economic growth of 4% on average, the Greek economy entered a recessionary phase in 2009. [..] The outlook is for real GDP to remain almost flat in 2010, before recovering mildly in 2011.’
Greece: Rebalancing growth amidst ongoing fiscal consolidation (2010)
‘Real GDP is expected to further decline by 3% in 2011 while growth is expected to turn around positively during the second half of the year, with the recovery gaining further momentum in 2012.’
Greece: Painful adjustment (2011)
‘2011 is the fourth consecutive year of declining economic activity […] The progressive rebalancing of the economy as well as growth-enhancing reforms and improving medium-term prospects abroad are expected to move the economy back onto stable footing from 2013 onwards, provided that the current adverse climate improves.’
