Werkt het monetaire transmissiekanaal in Nederland. Hmmm (3 grafieken)?
Volgens de boekjes kan de Europese Centrale Bank de rente verhogen of verlagen. En dat is natuurlijk zo: de ECB kan de rente die banken krijgen op tegoeden bij of moeten betalen voor leningen bij de ECB uiteraard aanpassen. Markt werkt dat door in de rest van de economie? Gaan banken, als ze zelf minder hoeven te betalen bijoorbeeld omdat ze onbeperkt goedkoop geld konden lenen via de LTRO-leningen van de ECB, zelf ook een lagere rente rekenen? De antwoorden voor Nederland zijn duidelijk. Sinds Lehmann heeft de ECB de rente met 3,75% verlaagd. Wat betekent dat, als het transmissiekanaal goed zou werken, de rentepercentages die banken rekenen ook met ongeveer dat percentage zouden moeten zijn verlaagd, wellicht iets meer, wellicht iets minder. Als we naar de gegevens kijken dan blijkt echter dat:
1. dit absoluut niet het geval is bij hypotheken (Grafiek 1. De hypotheekrente in Nederland is overigens aanzienlijk hoger dan in bijvoorbeeld Ierland en Duitsland)
2. dit slechts zeer beperkt het geval is bij consumptief krediet (Grafiek 2. Heeft u overigens een credit card? Weg ermee!)
3. het bij met name grote leningen aan bedrijven wel het geval is, hoewel ook hier de totale verlaging niet is doorgegeven en er bij kleinere leningen wel degelijk sprake is van hogere winstmarges voor de banken (Grafiek 3)
Samenvattend blijken het niet de huishoudens maar vooral de banken en de grote bedrijven te zijn die voordeel hebben van de lage rentetarieven. Zo werken markten in het echt. En dat terwijl de huishoudens in de economie uiteindelijk de werkelijk belangrijke eenheden zijn. En dat terwijl de huizenmarkt volledig op slot zit. En dat terwijl dalende consumentenbestedingen een hevige crisis-bovenop-een-crisis veroorzaken. En dat terwijl de salarissen bij de banken nog steeds gemiddeld erg hoog zijn. Tijd voor collectieve actie, harde actie, van de woningbezitters. Een hypotheekrente die 2% lager is scheelt al snel heel wat meer dan een zorgpremie die 200,– per maand hoger is.
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Bron: De Nederlandsche Bank
A plagnisely rational answer. Good to hear from you.
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“OK, here’s how big it gets, and here’s where it ends”, knows very little. The truth is….no one knows, as we can’t predict accurately that which is clearly unknown.AA
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